When geography is destiny, Gulf states must diversify their defence, expert says in Dalian

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, said on Wednesday that regional governments remained deeply reliant on the United States for security but were increasingly uneasy about Washington’s long-term strategy.

Despite US President Donald Trump’s pledge during a visit to the region in May last year that Washington would not pursue regime change, the administration instead adopted a “regime change-light strategy” that proved destabilising, according to Vakil.

Vakil said that while the region faced a “very uncomfortable moment” amid uncertain US policy and a more pragmatic yet still unpredictable Iran, the Gulf states had to help shape the outcome of this war as well, and not just outsource it to the Trump administration.

“The strategy going forward … is to diversify their defence relationships to build up their capabilities over the short and medium term, but also to continue managing the diplomatic track,” she said. “Geography is their destiny.”

Her remarks come as Washington and Tehran strive to realise lasting peace following more than 100 days of conflict.