{"id":3556,"date":"2025-10-06T10:18:16","date_gmt":"2025-10-06T02:18:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/moresourcing.com\/blog_dta_29sep25_e-htm\/"},"modified":"2025-10-06T10:18:16","modified_gmt":"2025-10-06T02:18:16","slug":"blog_dta_29sep25_e-htm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/moresourcing.com\/en\/blog_dta_29sep25_e-htm\/","title":{"rendered":"WTO Blog | Data Blog"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div id=\"blogtext\">\n<p>Artificial intelligence (AI) is already reshaping how  economies produce, trade and grow. The World Trade Report 2025, launched at the  WTO Public Forum on 17 September, examines the profound ways in which AI could  transform global trade. The report&#8217;s findings are clear: AI has the potential to  accelerate growth and expand trade opportunities, but the extent to which these  benefits are shared across and within economies will depend on the choices  policymakers make today.<\/p>\n<h2>The \u201c40 by 40\u201d effect<\/h2>\n<p>In the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/news_e\/news25_e\/wtr_15sep25_e.htm\">World  Trade Report 2025<\/a>, WTO economists look into the potential of AI to expand  global trade based on various scenarios of technological catch-up between  economies (see below). Their findings suggest that AI could increase global  trade by between 34 and 37 per cent (see Figure 1), meaning that by 2040, the  value of trade could be nearly 40 per cent higher than in a world without  AI-driven advances. This \u201c40 by 40\u201d effect would stem from three powerful  forces working together: lower trade costs due to AI-related efficiency gains, the  rapid growth of tradable AI services, and stronger AI-driven productivity gains  in sectors most integrated into international trade. <\/p>\n<p> <iframe src=\"https:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/blogs_e\/data_blog_e\/blog_dta_29sep25-fig_1.htm\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" style=\"width: 100%;\" id=\"myIframeOne\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>The economic impact extends beyond trade. By 2040, global  GDP could be 12 to 13 per cent higher as a result of AI\u2019s ability to boost  productivity and ease the frictions that currently slow cross-border commerce.<\/p>\n<p>These projections are optimistic for two main reasons.  First, recent studies suggest that AI could deliver larger productivity gains  than previously anticipated, substantially increasing the efficiency  with which economies turn inputs such as labour into output. Second, AI is now expected  to have a bigger impact on lowering trade costs, which would amplify its  positive effect on growth.<\/p>\n<h2>Emerging AI value chains<\/h2>\n<p>AI is already reshaping trade flows.  Global trade in AI-enabling goods \u2013 such as critical minerals, semiconductors  and computing equipment \u2013 reached US$ 2.3 trillion in 2023 (see Figure 2). These goods form the backbone of AI innovation, and  ensuring that they are widely available and affordable will be critical to increase  access to the technology.<\/p>\n<p>   <iframe src=\"https:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/blogs_e\/data_blog_e\/blog_dta_29sep25-fig_2.htm\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" style=\"width: 100%;\" id=\"myIframe2\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Participation in AI value chains opens a  wide range of development opportunities. Some economies are emerging as hubs  for upstream inputs (i.e., at the beginning of the value chain), such as  critical minerals and energy. Others are positioning themselves as centres for  data hosting or cloud services, or to operate the local adaptation of AI  models. <\/p>\n<p>Even foundational inputs, such as  training data, offer entry points for less technologically advanced economies.  Ensuring fair compensation and adequate labour protections will be essential as  these opportunities evolve.<\/p>\n<h2>The divide that could hold back growth<\/h2>\n<p>The  opportunities of AI will not materialize automatically. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/news_e\/news25_e\/wtr_15sep25_e.htm\">2025 World Trade Report<\/a> underscores  the persistent digital divide in technology  levels between advanced and developing economies.<\/p>\n<p> For example, internet access is nearly  universal in high-income economies, while in low-income economies, only about  one in five people have access to the internet. For those that do have access,  connections are often slower and more expensive than in high-income economies.  Education gaps deepen this divide: tertiary enrolment and the share of  graduates in science and technology subjects remain much lower in poorer  economies (see Figure 3).<\/p>\n<p>      <iframe src=\"https:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/blogs_e\/data_blog_e\/blog_dta_29sep25-fig_3.htm\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" style=\"width: 100%;\" id=\"myIframe3\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Policy differences add further  challenges. Almost 70 per cent of high-income economies have adopted AI  policies, compared to just 8 per cent of low-income economies (see Figure 4).  Spending on labour market programmes also shows significant divergences. While  wealthier economies can provide meaningful income support and retraining to  workers displaced by AI, poorer economies struggle to offer even minimal  assistance.<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\"><strong>Figure 4: High-income  and upper middle-income economies are leading in AI policies<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>    <iframe src=\"https:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/blogs_e\/data_blog_e\/blog_dta_29sep25-fig_4.htm\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" style=\"width: 100%;\" id=\"myIframe4\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>High-income  and upper middle-income economies also spend far more than lower-income  economies on AI education and labour market programmes for workers displaced by  AI. As of 2025, less than one-third of developing economies had adopted  dedicated AI education strategies. High-income economies also provide much  stronger social and labour support. These gaps provide a stark reminder of the  challenges that many governments face in effectively supporting workers  displaced by technological change.<\/p>\n<h2>The future of inclusive growth depends on policy choices made  today<\/h2>\n<p>The future of AI is defined by uncertainty \u2013 not only concerning  how the technology itself will evolve, but also with regard to how governments  and policymakers will respond to AI. If governments are to unlock the potential  of AI for inclusive growth, they will need to bridge digital divides, invest in  education and skills, reinforce labour market adjustment policies and ensure  that trade remains open and predictable.<\/p>\n<p>To capture this complexity, the World Trade Report explored various  scenarios:<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\"><strong>Scenario 1: Technology  divergence remains at the current level: <\/strong>According to this scenario, AI  adoption could widen existing divides. High-skilled workers would capture most  of the gains as AI-related productivity rises, while differences in digital  infrastructure and policy choices would shape how much individual economies  benefit from reduced trade costs and efficiency improvements.<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\"><strong>Scenario 2: Policy catch-up  between economies: <\/strong>According to this scenario, governments in less  digitally advanced economies could reduce by half the gap in AI-related  infrastructure and policy compared to the frontrunners. AI technology is also  more widespread in this scenario. At the same time, the use of &#8220;basic  AI&#8221; means that medium-skilled workers see the largest productivity boost,  and the benefits of AI are more widely shared.<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\"><strong>Scenario 3: Technology  catch-up between economies: <\/strong>Building on Scenario 2, faster technological  diffusion allows productivity levels in AI-enabled tasks in less digitally  advanced economies to converge partially with the productivity levels of the  best-performing regions, helping lagging economies to close the gap further.<\/p>\n<p>The differences are significant. As shown in Figure 5, if digital  and AI divides are narrowed (per Scenario 3: Technology catch-up), this could  almost double the GDP gains for low-income economies, from 8 per cent in a  scenario with no catch-up (per Scenario 1: Technology divergence) to 15 per  cent, without substantially changing the growth prospects in higher-income  economies.<\/p>\n<p><iframe src=\"https:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/blogs_e\/data_blog_e\/blog_dta_29sep25-fig_5.htm\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" style=\"width: 100%;\" id=\"myIframe5\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>These differences arise because moving  from Scenario 1 (Technology divergence) to Scenario  2 (Policy catch-up) and Scenario 3 (Technology  catch-up) involves two  simultaneous changes. <\/p>\n<p>First, low-income economies would need to  strengthen their digital infrastructure, as this would enable them to achieve  larger productivity gains. <\/p>\n<p>Second, the model shifts from a world  dominated by \u201cadvanced AI\u201d, where most of the benefits accrue to high-skilled  workers, to one in which \u201cbasic AI\u201d plays a greater role, delivering higher  productivity gains for low-skilled and medium-skilled workers. As high-income  economies depend more heavily on high-skilled labour, their average  productivity gains are slightly reduced. At the same time, the wider adoption  of basic AI tools can help reduce inequality within economies.<\/p>\n<p>The World Trade Report 2025 also considered a fourth  scenario based on AI technological catch-up between economies, i.e., economies with  low productivity in AI services partially catch up with economies with high  productivity in these services. For the sake of simplicity, this blog post  discusses only the first three scenarios in the Report.<\/p>\n<h2>The role of trade and cooperation<\/h2>\n<p>Trade can  act as a powerful equalizer. By facilitating access to AI technologies, skills  and inputs, open trade can ensure that the benefits of AI are more widely  shared. Tariffs, export measures, services regulation and data governance will  all shape the availability, affordability and diffusion of AI and AI-enabling  goods and services.<\/p>\n<p> The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/docs_e\/legal_e\/legal_e.htm\">WTO agreements<\/a> already support  AI development by promoting open markets, protecting innovation and encouraging  regulatory coherence. But more can be done, for example by easing access to  AI-related goods and services, reducing regulatory fragmentation and using AI  responsibly in the implementation of trade disciplines.<\/p>\n<p> Given that many AI-related trade  challenges touch on broader policy domains, stronger cross-institutional  collaboration will also be essential to ensure that trade, competition, labour  and environmental policies can reinforce one another.<\/p>\n<p><!-- script to allow resizable dynamic iframe content --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>#WTO #Blog #Data #Blog<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Artificial intelligence (AI) is already reshaping how economies produce, trade and grow. The World Trade Report 2025, launched at the WTO Public Forum on 17 September, examines the profound ways in which AI could transform global trade. The report&#8217;s findings are clear: AI has the potential to accelerate growth and expand trade opportunities, but the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3557,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-global-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.7.1 (Yoast SEO v25.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>WTO Blog | Data Blog - MORE SOURCING LTD<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/moresourcing.com\/en\/blog_dta_29sep25_e-htm\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"WTO Blog | Data Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Artificial intelligence (AI) is already reshaping how economies produce, trade and grow. 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