Spotify<\/a>.<\/p>\n\u0422\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0441\u043a\u0440\u0438\u043f\u0442<\/h4>\n
\u042d\u043b\u0438\u0441\u043e\u043d \u0420\u0430\u0439\u0434\u0435\u0440:<\/strong> We talk a lot about AI being overhyped. Today\u2019s guest believes \u2026 it\u2019s not. Continue listening to learn how his point is connected to tech infrastructure and security. <\/p>\nJeetu Patel:<\/strong> I\u2019m Jeetu Patel from Cisco. And you\u2019re listening to \u042f, \u044f \u0438 \u0438\u0441\u043a\u0443\u0441\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0435\u043b\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0442<\/cite>.<\/p>\n\u0421\u044d\u043c \u0420\u044d\u043d\u0441\u0431\u043e\u0442\u044d\u043c:<\/strong> \u0414\u043e\u0431\u0440\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0436\u0430\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u044c \u0432 \u042f, \u044f \u0438 \u0438\u0441\u043a\u0443\u0441\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0435\u043b\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0442<\/cite>\u043f\u043e\u0434\u043a\u0430\u0441\u0442 \u043e\u0442 MIT Sloan Management Review<\/cite> \u0438\u0441\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u0443\u044f \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0443\u0449\u0435\u0435 \u0438\u0441\u043a\u0443\u0441\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0435\u043b\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0442\u0430. \u042f \u0421\u044d\u043c \u0420\u044d\u043d\u0441\u0431\u043e\u0442\u044d\u043c, \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0444\u0435\u0441\u0441\u043e\u0440 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0438 \u0432 \u0411\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u043d\u0441\u043a\u043e\u043c \u043a\u043e\u043b\u043b\u0435\u0434\u0436\u0435. \u042f \u0437\u0430\u043d\u0438\u043c\u0430\u044e\u0441\u044c \u0438\u0441\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0435\u043c \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445, \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0438 \u0438 \u0438\u0441\u043a\u0443\u0441\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0435\u043b\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0442\u0430 \u0432 MIT SMR<\/cite> \u0441 2014 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430, \u043f\u0443\u0431\u043b\u0438\u043a\u0443\u044f \u043d\u0430\u0443\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0442\u044c\u0438, \u0435\u0436\u0435\u0433\u043e\u0434\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043e\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0432\u044b\u0435 \u043e\u0442\u0447\u0435\u0442\u044b, \u0442\u0435\u043c\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0435 \u0438\u0441\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f, \u0430 \u0442\u0435\u043f\u0435\u0440\u044c \u0438 12 \u0441\u0435\u0437\u043e\u043d\u043e\u0432 \u043f\u043e\u0434\u043a\u0430\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0432. \u0412 \u043a\u0430\u0436\u0434\u043e\u043c \u044d\u043f\u0438\u0437\u043e\u0434\u0435 \u0440\u0443\u043a\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0434\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u0438 \u043a\u043e\u043c\u043f\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0439, \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0435 \u0438\u0441\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u0438 \u0438 \u043f\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0438 \u0432 \u043e\u0431\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0418\u0418 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0441\u043e\u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u044f\u044e\u0442\u0441\u044f \u043a \u043d\u0430\u043c, \u0447\u0442\u043e\u0431\u044b \u0440\u0430\u0437\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0442\u044c\u0441\u044f, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u043e\u0442\u043b\u0438\u0447\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u0448\u0443\u043c\u0438\u0445\u0443 \u0432\u043e\u043a\u0440\u0443\u0433 \u0418\u0418 \u043e\u0442 \u0443\u0441\u043f\u0435\u0445\u0430 \u0418\u0418.<\/p>\nHi, listeners. Thanks for joining us again. Today, I am talking with Jeetu Patel, president and chief product officer at Cisco. Jeetu, thanks for joining us.<\/p>\n
Jeetu Patel:<\/strong> Thank you for having me, Sam. It\u2019s great to be here.<\/p>\n\u0421\u044d\u043c \u0420\u044d\u043d\u0441\u0431\u043e\u0442\u044d\u043c:<\/strong> As we talk, Cisco equipment is probably behind 90% of the infrastructure that we\u2019re using, but some listeners may not be aware of all that Cisco does. So let\u2019s start off there. Jeetu, can you give us some background on Cisco and, in particular, your role?<\/p>\nJeetu Patel:<\/strong> Sure. I\u2019ll start in reverse order. I run products at Cisco. So all the products that you use from Cisco, whether it be networking products, whether it be security products, whether it be data products, or collaboration products, those typically are ones that I\u2019m in charge of building and taking to market, of course with a very, very capable team. Essentially, the way you should think about Cisco is we are the critical infrastructure company for the AI era. So all of the plumbing that\u2019s required to make sure that people can connect, [that] people can stay secure while they\u2019re connected, and that people can make sure that they have the data platform, those are the things that we provide to the market.<\/p>\n\u0421\u044d\u043c \u0420\u044d\u043d\u0441\u0431\u043e\u0442\u044d\u043c:<\/strong> I saw a quote from you saying, \u201cThink of us as the picks and shovels [company] during the AI gold rush era.\u201d<\/p>\nJeetu Patel:<\/strong> Right.<\/p>\n\u0421\u044d\u043c \u0420\u044d\u043d\u0441\u0431\u043e\u0442\u044d\u043c:<\/strong> For listeners who may not be aware, there\u2019s a famous \u2014 or infamous \u2014statement that the people who made money in the gold rush were people who sold picks and shovels to the individual miners. Some of them made it big, but some of them did not. And I think your analogy is quite spot on there.<\/p>\nJeetu Patel:<\/strong> One of the things that you find when you go through these kinds of massive \u2014 what I would call disruptive \u2014 platform shifts, where we\u2019ve all been going down a certain path with a certain set of assumptions, and then the assumptions change because a whole new set of technologies emerge, which is what AI is, what you find is the infrastructure that\u2019s required to go out and run those technologies needs to be rethought and reimagined. And anytime there\u2019s any one of these major platform shifts, the infrastructure providers tend to make out pretty well because you have to change the entire plumbing of the apparatus that\u2019s going to be used. So if you think about when automobiles were built, you now need to have roads, and you need to have expressways, and you need to have traffic lights, and you need to have a whole system in place for how automobiles actually get integrated into society.<\/p>\nIt\u2019s not just the automobile, but everything around it needs to change. If you think about AI right now, these data centers where these digital workers are going to live, they have to be completely reimagined, because the current data center does not have the power availability and the compute requirements and the network bandwidth to be able to fulfill and satiate the needs of what an AI system would need. So you have to kind of rethink and reimagine and, as they call it in technical terms, rerack the data centers because there [are] racks and racks of computers, and network and switching gear that actually have to be cooled in a certain way, and so on and so forth. That entire shift is what we are in the midst of. And Cisco is a natural benefactor of it because we provide the infrastructure for the AI era.<\/p>\n
\u0421\u044d\u043c \u0420\u044d\u043d\u0441\u0431\u043e\u0442\u044d\u043c:<\/strong> [Compared to] some of the analogies you\u2019re making \u2014 we talked about the gold rush, we talked about the internet, we talked about cars \u2014 is artificial intelligence at that level of big deal, or not?<\/p>\nJeetu Patel:<\/strong> I think it might be bigger. The way I\u2019ve seen these kinds of shifts happen: Imagine if Amazon.com got built in the 1600s. It would be an epically failed company, because you didn\u2019t have the internet and you didn\u2019t have the underlying infrastructure on top of which Amazon could be built, because you didn\u2019t have the shipping and the logistics infrastructure and the internet and all of those pieces. In a similar vein with AI, we have the benefit of having all of the infrastructure that\u2019s been built out to date. When you have something that\u2019s built taking advantage of all of these things, by definition, each one of these subsequent, major, transformative waves tends to be bigger in impact than the previous ones, just because it was built on top of shoulders of giants of the previous innovations that had happened.<\/p>\nSo I would say this is probably the most consequential set of inventions that we will have seen in our lifetime, for sure, and probably arguably in humanity. The thing to keep in mind is the pace of innovation and the slope at which it happens actually makes it impossible to predict what\u2019s going to happen three years from now because we\u2019ve compressed the time. Scientific progress will probably compound by 1,000x. And so you\u2019ve compressed this timescale. \u2026 We\u2019re in a warped situation right now where humans can\u2019t make sense of this because everything\u2019s moving so fast.<\/p>\n
\u0421\u044d\u043c \u0420\u044d\u043d\u0441\u0431\u043e\u0442\u044d\u043c:<\/strong> Actually, there\u2019s so many things to talk about there. I think your analogy to Amazon and the 1600s is interesting because, for example, we had neural network designs back in the 1980s. We just didn\u2019t have the compute infrastructure, the data, the telecom to pull it off. So it took all these things coming together. And I think what you\u2019re saying is that all these things are together now for us to build from.<\/p>\nJeetu Patel:<\/strong> Actually, the biggest thing that we have that we didn\u2019t have then, because this would\u2019ve been hard to go invent, is AI has been around for a while, but when did it actually take off? It took off on Nov. 30, 2022. What was so significant about that date? That\u2019s when ChatGPT was launched. What was so significant about ChatGPT? It was essentially what they call a large language model. And a large language model was a model that actually understood human language, rather than the machine having to be rigid and the human having to learn the machine\u2019s language.<\/p>\nIt became the other way around. How did that happen? That happened because we had petabytes and petabytes of publicly available data on the internet that you could use to train these models so that these models would then know what to do with it. So if you didn\u2019t have the internet, you would\u2019ve not had AI because you would\u2019ve not had that level of data to then train the models on. It goes back to our point of each one of these inventions or revolutions is built on the infrastructure provided by the previous revolution. And it\u2019s very evident in this case.<\/p>\n
\u0421\u044d\u043c \u0420\u044d\u043d\u0441\u0431\u043e\u0442\u044d\u043c:<\/strong> One of the last conversations that I had with my grandfather was how much life had changed from no electricity, limited indoor plumbing, no airplanes, no space travel, no computers, to when he passed \u2014 how radically different that was. And I remember talking with him at the time, saying, \u201cOh, wow, you lived through a bunch. I can\u2019t imagine things changing as much during my lifetime.\u201d I may very quickly be eating those words.<\/p>\nJeetu Patel:<\/strong> I think we get into this kind of cycle. \u2026 Humans are not very good, in general, at imagining the exponential outcomes. We\u2019re very good at imagining linear regression but not the exponentiality of the outcome. So what ends up happening is we think about exponentiality in a single dimension, not multidimensional. \u2026 Years ago, I had a chance to sit down and talk to Ray Kurzweil, who\u2019s one of the scientists at Google. This was 20 years ago or something. And I was interviewing him for something, and we were talking about this notion of perpetual extension of life: Can a human live long enough to live forever? He had written this book where his thesis at the time was [that] if you live until you\u2019re 40, we will have the science and technology to allow us to live in perpetuity.<\/p>\nMy topic of communication with him was around the social implications of that. What happens if seven generations live simultaneously or 10 generations live simultaneously? That\u2019s going to be really hard because we\u2019re not going to have enough room to put everyone, and we\u2019re not going to have enough crops to go feed everyone. And he\u2019s like, \u201cYou know, this is the problem with humans. \u2026 We can\u2019t think in exponential terms because we think in a single dimension of exponentiality,\u201d which is, if seven generations or 10 generations lived simultaneously, what would happen with everything else being exactly the same? But the reality is you might have skyscrapers that might be 2,000 stories high, and you might have a crop cycle that takes three days.<\/p>\n
And so those are all things that would also simultaneously evolve so that they can accommodate the constraints that get created because of the developments that happen in certain areas. I feel like that\u2019s the same over here, when people say, \u201cYou know, I think humans are going to be sitting on a beach, have nothing to do, and AI is going to do everything,\u201d I just chuckle a little bit because I just refuse to believe that humans are designed to be obsolete. <\/p>\n
So we will continue to find ways to add value and think creatively. That doesn\u2019t mean that we\u2019ll be doing what we do today. It might very well mean that all the jobs that we do today might not be the jobs that we have, but that also doesn\u2019t mean that we\u2019re not going to have jobs. \u2026 The desire for a human to be productive and add value to society doesn\u2019t go away because something got automated. You just create higher-order bits that you\u2019ll then be able to go focus on that you were not able to focus on in the past.<\/p>\n
\u0421\u044d\u043c \u0420\u044d\u043d\u0441\u0431\u043e\u0442\u044d\u043c:<\/strong> Exactly. Just to make sure that I can get this thrown back in my face later, I\u2019m predicting massive increases [in] employment, not decreases. No one since the internet is doing less than they were before the internet, despite all the progress possible. I can\u2019t believe that\u2019s not going to happen again. I think we\u2019re headed toward the opposite direction.<\/p>\nJeetu Patel:<\/strong> I think you\u2019ll see some displacement of jobs temporarily, which we should not take lightly, because I think it\u2019ll cause human suffering. But that does not mean that that will be the state in perpetuity. What you have to keep in mind is that displacement period, if we get ahead of it, because of the pattern that we\u2019re starting to witness, we might be able to actually get society retrained in a more efficient way than we might have done in the past with previous disruptions. And that might be a responsibility that the tech community, the collaboration between the public and private sector, should have as a good, beneficial outcome, because I think there\u2019s going to be more and more of a need for collaboration across different sectors.<\/p>\nThis is one of those areas where I tend to be, in the long term, an optimist without being naive about the short-term implications that this might have. Even [the] mid-term implications it has around safety and security, and the downside effects could be profoundly consequential that we have to keep in mind. But I refuse to believe that we\u2019re going to be obsolete or that we\u2019re not going to have value to add. It just seems unnatural.<\/p>\n
\u0421\u044d\u043c \u0420\u044d\u043d\u0441\u0431\u043e\u0442\u044d\u043c:<\/strong> I think that\u2019s well put, that we can have a positive aggregate effect but still have lots of heterogeneity in how that average plays out across society, and being naive about that is going to hurt us in the long run. You mentioned security, though. And when we were talking about reracking and infrastructure changes, we quickly slipped toward routers and modems and telecom and hardware-oriented things. But one of the things that I think you\u2019re very focused on in terms of infrastructure is the idea of security, and how does that become a first-class player versus the thing that\u2019s derided as hampering productivity.<\/p>\nSo we\u2019ve always had this sort of productivity-security trade-off. I think that you\u2019ve mentioned that we may not be making that trade-off anymore. How can we help security be part of the infrastructure?<\/p>\n